Luka All-Star 2019: Will Fan Voting Be Enough?

Luka Dončić is raking in the fan votes, but unfortunately that is only half the equation.

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We are in the midst of All-Star voting season and all Mavericks fans and Luka Dončić fans are committed to sending the 19 year old Slovenian Sensation to the 2019 All-Star game in Charlotte, NC.  A few weeks into voting and a few weeks left to go, it is a good time to review how the All-Star starters voting works and see what kind of chance Luka Dončić has of joining the court with the worlds best ballers.  Remember, fan voting is just half of the equation, so what else does it take for this dream to become a reality?

Voting For Starters

3 frontcourt players and 2 guards are chosen to be starters.  The new system, put in place in 2017, is a combination of fan voting, player voting, and media voting.  The 3 lowest frontcourt scores and the 2 lowest guard scores are chosen, weighted as follows:

  • 50% Fan Vote
  • 25% Players Vote
  • 25% Media Vote

Although he has the ball in his hand a lot, Luka Dončić is classified as Western Conference frontcourt.  To get an idea of how this whole thing will play out, lets take a look at last year’s voting results.

2018 Western Conference Frontcourt Voting Summary
Player Team Fan Rank  Player Rank Media Rank  Score
1. *Durant GSW 1 1 1 1
2. *Davis NOP 3 2 2 2.5
3. *Cousins NOP 4 3 4 3.75
4.  Green GSW 2 7 6 4.25
5. George OKC 5 6 7 5.75
6. Aldridge SAS 8 4 3 5.75
7. Towns MIN 9 6 4 6.75
8. Leonard SAS 6 8 9 7.25
9. Anthony OKC 7 9 9 8
10. Kuzma LAL 10 12 9 10.25

Last year the Western Conference starters were Kevin Durant, who was first in each category, Anthony Davis, and DeMarcus Cousins.  To see the big impact of the fan voting just look at Draymond Green.  He was 7th in Media vote, 6th in player vote, but almost made the starting lineup because he finished 2nd in the fan vote.  Enough about last year, let’s look at how things are developing this season.

2019 Western Conference Frontcourt All-Star Fan Voting Results as of Jan. 10

Rank Player Fan Votes
1 LeBron James (LAL) 2,779,812
2 Luka Dončić (DAL) 2,220,077
3 Paul George (OKC) 1,859,216
4 Kevin Durant (GSW) 1,717,968
5 Anthony Davis (NOP) 1,564,347
6 Steven Adams (OKC) 1,034,014
7 Nikola Jokić (DEN) 740,918
8 Kyle Kuzma (LAL) 584,842
9 Draymond Green (GSW) 411,131
10 DeMarcus Cousins (GSW) 276,849

All of the worldwide support for Luka Dončić is paying off!  voting every day across all 4 platforms has led to WonderBoy being 2nd in fan voting for Western Conference frontcourt players.  All of the buzzer beaters, step-backs, and alley-oop passes have made Luka Dončić a household name and fan favorite just a few months into his NBA career.

Paul George has moved up to 3rd place in fan voting in this second release of results on Jan. 10th, passing Kevin Durant.  For those of us who want to do everything we can to help Luka be an All-Star this year we need to be conscious of voting for any of the above front court players that will be competing for a spot with Luka.  Every vote for George, Durant, Davis, or James reduces the chances that Luka lands in the top 3.

If it was just up to the fans like it used to be, Luka Dončić would be guaranteed a starting spot, however, now that it is only part of the equation.  In order to try to figure out how the media and player voting results will go we need to look at the performance of each of these players in the top 10 of fan voting.

Player Stats for Top 10 Players in Fan Vote as of Jan. 10

Of the players in the top 10 in fan voting so far, Anthony Davis has the highest Game Score of anyone.  Game Score is a formula developed by by John Hollinger to give a rough measure of a player’s productivity for a single game. I have applied that Game Score formula to each players statistics for the 2018-2019 season and ranked them.  Anthony Davis’ Game Score and stat line are just absurd, even compared to the other top All-Star candidates for the Western Conference frontcourt.

Luka Dončić comes in a respectable 6th place in Game Score ranking.  His scoring averages are not up there with the top frontcourt players in the conference but a lot of that has to do with him simply playing less minutes and taking less shots than George, Davis, Durant, and James.  These guys average upwards of 35 minutes per game and 20 shots per game while Luke is sitting at 32 minutes and 15 shot attempts per game.

Player MP FG% 3P% FT% REB AST STL BLK TOV PTS Gm Sc
Davis 37 51% 32% 80% 13.2 4.4 1.8 2.7 2 28.9 38.24
George 35.4 45% 38% 83% 8 3.9 2.2 0.6 2.7 26.8 34.10
Durant 35.8 51% 36% 91% 7.4 6.1 0.8 1 3.4 28.4 33.90
James 34.6 52% 36% 68% 8.3 7.1 1.3 0.7 3.4 27.3 33.86
Jokic 31.3 50% 33% 84% 10.1 7.5 1.5 0.7 3.3 19.2 27.06
Dončić 32 44% 37% 74% 6.7 5 1.1 0.3 3.2 20 25.00
Adams 33.8 60% 0% 54% 10.2 1.7 1.4 0.8 1.5 15.4 20.15
Kuzma 33.8 60% 0% 54% 10.2 1.7 1.4 0.8 1.5 15.4 20.15
Green 31.7 42% 24% 77% 8 6.8 1.7 1 2.9 7.3 13.74
Cousins 0

Current Fan Vote, Media and Player Votes ranked by Game Score

Using the current fan voting results and then adding in the media vote and player vote strictly based on the Game Score ranking above, these would be the results:

Player Fan Vote Media Vote Player Vote Score
Lebron James 1 4 4 2.5
Paul George 3 2 2 2.5
Anthony Davis 5 1 1 3
Kevin Durant 4 3 3 3.5
Luka Dončić 2 6 6 4
Nikola Jokic 7 5 5 6
Steven Adams 6 7 7 6.5
Kyle Kuzma 8 8 8 8
Draymond Green 9 9 9 9
DeMarcus Cousins 10 10 10 10

By this ranking Luka would be on the outside looking in when it comes to All-Star starters as the top 3 would be LeBron James, Paul George, and Anthony Davis.

This is clearly not the scenario we are looking for.  The fan vote counts for double so being 2nd clearly has a big impact but not enough to overcome a 6th place finish in both media voting and player voting.  So say Luka still finishes 2nd in fan vote, what would it take for him to make it to top 3 and be named a Western Conference All-Star starter.

This is still based on current fan voting results as of January 10th.  Player vote is based on the Game Score rankings from above, and media vote is done based on what I see is a realistic scenario in which Luka can get in.  This is where the 2nd overall ranking in fan vote really helps because that is the tie-breaker if 2 players end with the same score.  Although Anthony Davis and Luka have the same score, Luka is higher in fan voting so he would be the third All-Star frontcourt starter.

Player Fan Vote Media Vote Player Vote Score
Lebron James 1 1 4 1.75
Paul George 3 4 2 3
Luka Dončić 2 3 6 3.25
Anthony Davis 5 2 1 3.25
Kevin Durant 4 5 3 4
Nikola Jokic 7 6 5 6.25
Steven Adams 6 7 7 6.5
Kyle Kuzma 8 8 8 8
Draymond Green 9 9 9 9
DeMarcus Cousins 10 10 10 10

It is still an outside shot that Luka sneaks into the top 3 and is named an NBA All-Star starter but one this is for sure, THE VOTING IS WORKING! There are 10 more days left before they close fan voting on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, Monday, Jan. 21 at 11:59 pm ET.  Get those votes in every day, 4 different platforms are available to place 4 votes for Luka every day.  If you need a refresher on the 4 ways to vote just check out our Luka Dončić Daily All-Star Voting Routine. Last night Luka Dončić scored 28 points, ripped down 8 rebounds, dished out 12 assists, and scored 7 of the last 9 points for the Mavericks including the go-ahead 3 with just 24 seconds left in the win in Minnesota against the Timberwolves.  Luka is doing his part, now all of us fans worldwide need to continue to do ours.  Let’s send our boy to the All-Star game!

 

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